History presents few statesmen who are so eminently suited to the task at hand, with the requisite nous to not only clearly articulate the direction in which they aim to take those they lead, but to adequately lay out the philosophical basis for their course of action that is both easily understood and well-received by a critical mass of people. Dr. Nigel Clarke is one of those few. In Footprints in the Sand, Clarke simply yet elegantly outlines to his readers the importance of good policy as the sine qua non of positive macroeconomic outcomes for small developing states like Jamaica, and in the pedagogical manner only the son of a teacher can. Having presided over most of the longest current period of macroeconomic stability in Jamaica’s post-Independence history, Clarke shares with us in his 434-page compendium of 85 articles, speeches, policy statements and interviews the thought processes undergirding the conceptualisation, development and implementation of a wide range of initiatives spanning fiscal responsibility, public sector reform, institution building, strengthening social protection mechanisms, empowering the private sector, increasing financial sector resilience, disaster risk financing and finally, policymaking during the most devastating health-related shock in a century.
It is easy to take for granted the necessity of having macroeconomic stability. By the second decade of the 2000s, Jamaica’s finances were in a parlous state. Domestic demands outstripped the capacity of the government to satisfy. Expenses consistently exceeded revenues. External resources had to be marshaled to fill the gap. The result was a self-immiserating trajectory in which the overwhelming majority of taxpayer monies was consumed by debt obligations, leaving little else with which to advance the country’s development objectives. Jamaica was at risk of being a pariah state to international creditors. Decades of cavalier and brinkmanlike fiscal management were also characterized by a subpar performance and tenuous outlook across all other major economic indicators. However, at the 15th attempt, Jamaica was able to reverse the seemingly inevitable plunge over the cliff, at the imprimatur of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Within six years, Jamaica successfully completed two of the Fund’s dreaded structural adjustment programmes, having passed the same number over the course of the preceding half-century. Footprints in the Sand opens with the antecedents to these negotiations, in which Clarke was to later become the main interlocutor between Fund officials and the Jamaican government.
After the departure of the IMF, Jamaica’s financial tour de force continued to be monitored by a coalition of well-thinking Jamaicans who understood that the country could simply not afford to return to old ways. Our economic reform programme became wholly domestically owned. Fiscal responsibility became embedded in the local economic lexicon and effective bipartisanship was on display through programme continuity across successive political administrations, giving Clarke a running start for undertaking his leg of the relay – a fact he frequently mentions and for which he credits the Opposition. After posting deficits for the first decade and a half of the new millennium, six of the last seven fiscal years have recorded a surplus in the fiscal accounts, the exception occasioned by the COVID-induced fall-off in revenues in 2020/21. The importance of fiscal responsibility cannot be overstated. Indeed, the best way to convey the importance of its presence is to demonstrate the effects of its chronic absence. Clarke manages to do this forcefully, particularly through his example of the evisceration of Jamaica’s bauxite levy proceeds, and the high opportunity cost of their non-investment over 40 years. He also details this opportunity cost through the aggressive fiscal effort involved in delivering Jamaica’s lowest public debt levels in over 50 years, exacerbated by the financial meltdown of the 1990s, which mortgaged the future of an entire generation, while foreclosing on a host of other opportunities for development. As such, he reiterates the almost innumerable exhortations to continue to adhere to and abide by the principles of sound public financial management by always having buffers on hand and retaining the capacity to replenish them after a crisis but cautions that this must not be an end in and of itself.
It is this note of caution, skilfully interweaved in the tapestry of the policymaking story which represents the strength of Footprints in the Sand. Clarke artfully translates the almost nebulous concept of ‘macroeconomic stability’ from being a lofty ideal for over 50 years to becoming a practical reality with tangible benefits within the last decade, and in so doing heightens the expectations of a more profoundly engaged populace with respect to economic and financial affairs. The idea of stability has become so entrenched in the public’s consciousness that it is rarely thought of as an imperative anymore – because it has already been achieved. Yet, Clarke does not want us to rest on our laurels. He invites his readers to consider the possibilities for the future by not only preserving but augmenting those gains through enabling the private sector to be the engine of growth so greater investments can be made in infrastructure and human capital development. With an eye always on sustainability, he further reminds us of the need to maintain these gains in the face of adversity when the stakes are highest and when it matters the most, as he calmly indicated during the throes of the compensation restructuring exercise when the meeting of fiscal targets was almost thrown out of kilter during its first year of implementation.
Dr. Clarke, however, should not be seen as an excessively rigid policymaker. Indeed, he openly acknowledges the existence of perfectly justifiable circumstances in which targets, generally, should be revisited, with a view to their modification, especially when impacted by events outside the government’s control and giving due consideration to the need to be responsive and agile to capricious events, as it was during COVID-19 when Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP target was delayed by two fiscal years. Given the massive fiscal consolidation effort required to put Jamaica’s finances on even keel, however, few would disagree that the threshold for that determination should be high, and indeed higher than the norm. That can only be guaranteed by the sort of security offered by inclusion of fiscal responsibility imperatives in the Constitution – a recommendation Clarke advocates for quite early in Footprints, coming even before taking the reins of the island’s Treasury, but which has unfortunately yet to materialize.
It would be wrong to conclude that this is a book focused exclusively on macroeconomic stability, fiscal responsibility or even about economic lessons for small, developing countries. Footprints frequently invokes the unique spirit of resilience of the Jamaican people and the fixity of purpose with which Jamaicans are endowed to achieve their goals and recover from any setback. Clarke draws on the inherent power possessed by a talented people to pursue their ambitions with tenacity and determination, using the remarkable turnaround of the Jamaican economy as a shining example of what can be accomplished with a clear plan, unbreakable collectivism and perseverance despite all odds. Footprints is required reading not only for academicians, technocrats or others so scientifically inclined, but also those looking for inspiration and who remain optimistic about the prospects for a better future for Jamaica and its citizens, as Dr. Clarke so unambiguously does while extolling the value of public service, eschewing the proclivity for expedience, taking responsibility for our own vulnerabilities and always putting people at the centre of development. The plaudits that Footprints are likely to receive are all fully merited.
Background on Reviewer: Keenan Falconer is a young Jamaican Economist and Special Project Officer at the Local Office of the International Monetary Fund at the Bank of Jamaica.